Four years ago, South Carolina did more than any other state to set up McCain-Obama, the best possible matchup. And while Mitt Romney is still the most likely Red nominee – even after last night’s Palmetto drubbing – if he is going to lose, this is pretty much how it has to happen. The South is the stronghold of the Reds, and no one can ascend to the Throne of Skulls without its support. Eyes turn to the Sunshine State, and the guy many in the byline brigade thought unstoppable needs a win. If Mittens loses in America’s Wang, he’s in serious trouble.
The political press will be filled with stories about just that for the next week and a half, but the only important consideration is whether or not Romney’s support in Florida collapses the same way it did in South Carolina. If that happens, then at the very least we’re in for a long nominating process, and we ought to have a good idea about how that’s going by next weekend. In the meantime, it’s worth pondering the man who’s making Mitt sweat through his high thread count magic underwear. He’s #94 in your programs, but #1 in your heart: Newt Gingrich.
Even by the standards of all the Not Romneys who came and went over the last six months, Gingrich is improbable. To sober eyes, he has more strikes against him, personal, ethical, and otherwise, than the rest of the pretenders put together. His campaign operation is just this side of non-existent, he’s disliked by a majority of the voting public, his ideas are the definition of hackneyed, and he looks like a bridge troll. Despite all that, he is the preference of his party’s true home. New Hampshire is unlikely to be in the Red column this November, Iowa even less so. South Carolina, however, wouldn’t vote Blue even if George Wallace came back from the dead.
That’s why Mitt’s South Carolina problem – and his potential Florida problem – are his electoral weaknesses writ small. He can’t get to 1600 without the quarter of the population that never stopped backing Bush the Younger. And those Americans don’t trust him, and never will.
Make no mistake, they want that black – black! – son of a bitch kept away from the state china, but they also don’t think milquetoast Mittens is the man to do it. Their televisions and radios tell them that Barack Obama is unpopular and hated; their friends agree. The mid-term elections support this idea. So why not Gingrich? The man hurt Clinton better than any other Republican, and that matters more to them than all the divorce lawyers and jewelry clerks in the world combined. For them, Gingrich is easy to picture as Mighty Casey, poured into his uniform and bat in hand, stepping up to the plate.
Those are the people who gave Gingrich his big plurality in South Carolina, and while they will punch the Red ticket regardless of who’s on it, they’d prefer a champion. In that regard, Gingrich is baggage free. He’s back after a decade of irrelevance, still fighting. The insults, the jokes, the pain, all of it works in his favor. For people who believe that they’re restoring America, he couldn’t be better fit.
Mitt Romney may yet hang on to win this thing. And the issues and economy that will tip the scales in November are still unclear. But while Mittens can be the nominee, he can never be their champion. The question now is whether or not that matters.
