The recent tiff between Benjamin Netanyahu and the highest officers of the United States government over the authorization of settlement construction in East Jerusalem should come as no surprise to anyone. Such a public moment of disagreement became inevitable the instant Netanyahu regained the Prime Minister’s chair last year. Every vaguely sane member of Netanyahu’s Likud Party bolted when Ariel Sharon, no leftist, set up the Kadima Party five years ago. The resulting Likud Party was much farther to the right than it had been, and it got back into power just two months after Bush the Younger went back to Texas. So you had the United States lurching to the left just as the Israeli government was lurching to the right. Some kind of conflict was a foregone conclusion.
This has caused the usual frothing at the mouth from the usual neoconservative nutjobs. (This was fairly typical and should more than do by way of example.) But accusations that Obama is anti-Israel, because he doesn’t agree 100% with Israel’s main right wing party, will never gain much traction. They’re too abstruse for the general public, and amongst politics fans the only people who will take arguments like that seriously already hate Obama anyway. As David Remnick pointed out in last week’s New Yorker, such accusations aren’t merely a little bit untrue, they’re wildly false, bordering on clinical lunacy.
There are only two issues that Israel really seems to care about internationally, fucking the Palestinians and keeping Iran from getting the bomb. It is only on the former that there is much disagreement. Obama seems intent on cracking down on Iran’s probably non-existent nuclear weapons program, far more so than many of his supporters (myself included) would like. To be fair to him, his stance towards Iran hardened significantly after last year’s “election” and subsequent government crackdown. If that election hadn’t been so badly tarred by accusations of fraud we’d be on much better footing with Iran right now. But it was tarred, and it’s clearly had a big effect on Washington’s official tone towards Tehran.
In terms of the Palestinians, though, there isn’t much room for compromise. Obama and his minions have repeatedly said what every sane observer has been saying for the last decade: at the very least, settlement construction has to halt before any peace can be attempted. Over the course of the last year, Obama signaled plenty of willingness to wiggle on this, and all he got for showing some flex was Netanyahu’s spit in his eye. The little crisis that erupted with Biden’s visit to Israel and concluded with Netanyahu’s visit to the White House (a trip that resembled a visit to the principal’s office more than a state visit) will die down in due course. But the fundamentals, for Israel and Netanyahu, have not changed.
Obama is barely a quarter of the way through a fixed four year term and, given the dilapidated state of the Republican Party, looks to be in good shape for another. Netanyahu, on the other hand, can lose his job at any time, and his continued employment rests on the sufferance of right wing nutjobs, many of whom have never trusted or liked him. You don’t need to be a Middle East expert, or even an Israel expert, to see that. So far, Netanyahu has done an impressive job of walking the tightrope between his rabidly right wing coalition partners and the demands of Obama, but, just as it was a year ago when he became Prime Minister, it’s a task at which he will eventually fail. Until that happens, Israel will continue to tread water, constructing a few more piddling settlements while alienating its only allies in the world, and the Netanyahu Government Deathwatch will go on.