Here in the summer of 2009 one never lacks for bad news coming from Afghanistan and neighboring places. The articles about how screwed up the situation is already make for macabre reading, especially when paired with articles pointing out that we have no real idea what it is we’re doing there. When the Western war in Afghanistan began in the fall of 2001 it was couched in grand sentiments that allowed pretty much the entire world to support it. Humanitarians were going to see the end of the nearly medieval Taliban government and cautiously embraced the promises of Western governments that they would no longer ignore the difficult places in the world. Aggrieved warriors, of the real and laptop varieties, were going to get their revenge for the attacks on America. There was something in it for everyone and it was the prime focus of the entire world.
That didn’t last very long, and Afghanistan has now been allowed to fester for years. The warriors got an even bigger shot at misguided revenge in Iraq. The humanitarians were (once again) disappointed as the promises of the world’s wealthy and powerful were (once again) broken or forgotten. Afghanistan became the little brother war, rarely discussed as its noisier and larger sibling to the west sucked up international attention. Today the Afghan war has become an almost permanent fixture of the political background noise in the countries that continue to prosecute it.
This, of course, includes America, where Barack Obama and Joe Biden campaigned heavily on ending the Iraq War. But when they spoke about Afghanistan they spoke of continuing it, of doing it better; this was little different than their opponents. In other words, the American electorate wasn’t given a choice on Afghanistan; indeed, almost eight years into the war the American public has been given almost no opportunity to vote on the continuation or cessation of Bush the Younger’s first war. The result of that is the almost complete neutralization of Afghanistan as a political issue in the United States. It’s too far down the priority list, too deeply enmeshed in our consciousness as ordinary, to generate any serious political heat.
In fact, it is difficult to imagine a political landscape where Afghanistan is a make or break issue for Barack Obama, heading into November 2010 or November 2012. Come next November, if the economy is still shitty and the Iraq withdrawal isn’t going well, then Obama’s Blue horde will have a rough go of it. If the economy is better and the Iraq withdrawal is proceeding relatively smoothly, then they’re going to be just fine. Afghanistan barely rates. For 2012 the situation is similar. If we’re out of Iraq and the economy isn’t in the toilet it’s hard to envision a Republican candidate, even one with impeccable military credentials, winning the election with Afghanistan as a central issue. Just cleaning up the economy and getting us out of Iraq would be monumental achievements and Obama and his political machine are more than capable of pointing that out to the electorate.
To make matters worse Afghanistan’s political irrelevancy flows in only one direction. A quick Western withdrawal (which none of the empowered Blue heavyweights are seriously discussing) would play to the political idea that the Democrats are still the weak party on nebulous but gut-check type issues like “terrorism” and “national security”. But if the Blues keep the pressure on (more troops! smarter drones! better tactics!) it buys them political breathing room at little to no cost (other than the blood, limbs and lives of soldiers and civilians, but those are almost considered sunk costs at this point).
The political landscape in this country is still the one created by Bush the Younger and his cadre of fanatics. We’re still living in a society that is reflexively jittery about guys in caves and the political cost for ignoring that fear is potentially gruesome. Years of government fear mongering, aided and abetted by spineless media whores who love hyperbole, have had a profound effect that Mr. 53% well understands.
The politically safe, one could even call it the politically responsible, thing for Obama and company to do is to muddle through in Afghanistan and hope that neither it nor Pakistan seriously deteriorate. It is bloody minded logic, no doubt about that. But absent a massive and sustained increase in American casualties it’s hard to imagine Afghanistan ever getting the serious hearing that would make it a politically costly decision.
And so, the Afghanistan War is fucked, utterly and completely fucked, because it has almost no chance of becoming a defining national issue in Barack Obama’s current term. Iraq must be squared away first. Pakistan must be meddled with, for good or ill. Afghanistan remains the “also” war, never thought of first, never receiving top billing for more than a day or two. It will just keep going until we finally get around to it, whenever that may be. In the meantime the violence will continue, tactics will shift and strategies will wax and wane. The grim articles will continue.
