Two months ago I predicted doom for Benjamin Netanyahu’s second stint as Israel’s Prime Minister. My conclusion was based on two irreconcilable facts. First, that Netanyahu needs to push hawkish, right wing policies to appease his shaky right wing Knesset partners. Second, President Obama, who is considerably more secure and more powerful than Netanyahu, is opposed to those policies. The last week or so has seen those differences break right out into the open.
First there was Secretary of State Clinton’s unequivocal remarks:
“With respect to settlements, the president was very clear when Prime Minister Netanyahu was here, he wants to see a stop to settlements. Not some settlements, not outposts, not natural growth exceptions. We think it is in the best interest of the effort that we are engaged in that settlement expansion cease. That is our position, that is what we have communicated very clearly, not only to the Israelis, but to the Palestinians and others and we intend to press that point.”
That is, shall we say, a bit of a departure from what Israel is used to hearing from Washington. Netanyahu, caught between his fickle fundamentalist allies and a liberal and determined American president, seems flustered (via):
Referring to Clinton’s call for a settlement freeze, Netanyahu groused, “What the hell do they want from me?”
Those are not the words of a man preparing his supporters to make compromises; those are the words of a man that, though only in office for two months, is already between a rock and a hard place.
That post, by Laura Rozen at ForeignPolicy.com is worth reading in full, but I’m going to quote one other part here that strikes me as a particularly ill tiding for Netanyahu’s job prospects. Quoth Hussein Ibish, “senior fellow at the American Task Force for Palestine”:
There has been a growing sense of members of Congress who are well-informed on foreign policy … that peace is essential to the American national interest and the Israeli national interest. And there’s been a growing sense that the possibility of a two-state agreement is time-limited and that things like the settlements are incompatible with the goal of creating two states.
That’s the crippling problem Netanyahu faces. The creation and expansion of West Bank settlements, tacitly (if not openly) supported by the US Government for eight years, is now seen as detrimental to American interests. So while Netanyahu is free to torment the Palestinians he can’t count on the US remaining silent while he does so.
Events look set to take the next step starting next week when US Middle East envoy George Mitchell visits Israel. He’s there to, “hear official responses to U.S. demands for a halt to West Bank settlement building.” That ought to be a fun conversation. Though it will be interesting to see what Netanyahu and his government come up with. America is far and away Israel’s most important foreign relationship and its government can’t be seen as openly thumbing its nose at Washington. This is especially true given the enormous international clout and prestige of the new American President.
Netanyahu remains stuck between Obama and his Knesset allies. Enacting a genuine freeze on settlement activity (and as Juan Cole points out Obama seems unlikely to be satisfied by half measures and evasions) could cause Netanyahu’s government to collapse as his right wing allies shriek “Betrayal!” Ignoring Obama and continuing the settlement project could cause a serious breach in the Israeli-American relationship, and no Israeli government can long survive the cold shoulder from Washington. Keeping both placated will require an extremely delicate balancing act; indeed it may be completely impossible.
It’s also worth remembering that in January Tzipi Livni, who would presumably be the favorite to replace Netanyahu if his government fell, told this to 60 Minutes:
60 Minutes: Can you really imagine evacuating the tens of thousands of settlers who say they will not leave?
Livni: It’s not going to be easy, but this is the only solution.
60 Minutes: But you know that there are settlers who say, “We will fight, we will not leave, we will fight”.
Livni: So this is the responsibility of the government, of the police to stop them. As simple as that. Israel is a state of law and order.
Obama and his people are certainly aware of that position so in the end, Obama’s answer to Netanyahu’s question (“What the hell do they want from me?”), may simply be “To go away”.
End Note: For a nice idea of just how short sighted Netanyahu is capable of being, read “Mishal’s Luck” in the 14 May issue of the London Review of Books. The article details Israel’s enormously botched 1997 assassination attempt on Khalid Mishal, one of the founding members of Hamas. Long story short, it ended with Netanyahu flying to Jordan to personally apologize to the king. Mishal is still alive and is now, in no small part thanks to Netanyahu’s bungling, the leader of Hamas. Good decision making is not one of the Israeli Prime Minister’s hallmarks.
