Most good movies have a third act and the ruling upholding Proposition 8 issued by the California Supreme Court yesterday set up a doozy. The court set the stage last year when it legalized marriage for everyone. As if on cue, ranting villains (straight out of central casting for angry, ignorant conservatives) materialized and brought things down with a stealth ballot initiative that was largely ignored in the widely expected coronation of Barack Obama. A doomed court challenge was mounted, seemingly out of little more than pique, and yesterday it died. But ballot initiatives are easy in California and there will almost certainly be another one in November of 2010, this time enshrining same sex marriage in the state constitution. Now that we have our third act scripted out, all that remains is lights, camera, action.
Prior to last November most political observers assumed that Proposition 8 would go down to defeat because, c’mon it’s California. But with massive financial support and less than honest arguments (preachers would be forced to marry fags!) it passed. That narrow passage replaced Proposition 8’s previous obscurity with nationwide attention and now it’s become the Plessy vs. Ferguson of homosexual rights. It even comes with a catchy nickname, “Prop H8”.
This is the greatest thing that could’ve possibly happened for supporters of equal access to marriage; it’s the clarion call that the issue had previously lacked. The 2003 decision by the Massachusetts Supreme Court was national news, but it just isn’t that exciting from a storytelling standpoint. First of all, it’s a court decision and those are inherently dry, they lack the democratic panache and easily understood arithmetic of ballot initiatives.
More importantly, it was in boring old Massachusetts. Let’s face it, nobody west of the Hudson River gives a fuck about the state that produced Michael Dukakis and John Kerry. California, though, is a place everybody cares about; it gave us Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, it’s where movies and teevee come from, its governor is a multi-millionaire movie star. Nobody in one of the flyover states ever shopped at Mervyn’s Massachusetts, did they?
Not only does this thing already have a compelling plot and a sexy location, but it’s going to happen in a non-presidential election year. Without the bright spectacle of a presidential contest media types are going to be hungry for stories and the California vote on same sex marriage will be easy pickings. It’s obviously not a national referendum, but it might feel like one and in terms of the larger national battle over same sex marriage that’s important.
Once Proposition Whatever passes, and while surprises can happen the odds have to be heavily in its favor, the idea of same sex marriage as a rolling fait accompli will be pretty much cemented in the national consciousness. Of course, if one speculates a bit further one can ask what happens after 2010. Will another initiative opposing marriage, with newer and cleverer wording, be on the ballot in 2012? Will the cycle repeat itself? Of course not, the forces supporting ye olde tyme marriage know that theirs is a losing cause. Licked at the ballot box they’ll likely not rise again.
Yesterday’s ruling and the passage of Proposition 8 in general have set the stage for a monumental battle over same sex marriage. Since that battle is going to take place on friendly ground and on national television it’s ultimately to the benefit of those who would see the various joys and miseries of marriage extended to homosexual couples. Just since last November’s vote, a mere six months ago, three more states have legalized same sex marriage and New Hampshire is right on the brink. That’s a pretty rapid advance for an issue that was considered politically radioactive as recently as 2004. There’s no reason to expect anything except further progress and this week’s little setback is only going to make the eventual victory bigger and more legitimate.
