The popular economic stimulus bill, backed by a majority in both houses of Congress and supported by an even more popular president passed. Viva la revolucion! (It is a testament to the institutional inertia of our political commentary machine that this is being treated as a surprise.) So, what’s next on the agenda? Well, there are two contenders: the medical bill and the carbon bill. Both of them are desperately needed and both of them stand to have almost incalculable consequences.
(One of them is going to come first, though which one is anybody’s guess. The carbon bill has the advantage of having its most relevant cabinet secretary, a minor media darling, already in office. The health care bill, on the other hand, had its nominee washed out by tax problems.)
Each stands to radically reshape the economy, have a profound effect on the future of the country, and, assuming they work, bring substantial and long lasting political rewards to the Democratic Party. Let’s take a look.
If it can extend coverage to people who don’t currently have insurance without degrading the care given to those who currently do have insurance then the medical bill is going to fundamentally alter this country. It should save tens of billions of dollars per year in administrative waste right off the bat and that’s before accounting for the incalculable benefits of a generally healthier populace. Healthier kids become healthier (and better educated) adults who can create and work better and more productive jobs which in turn makes us all richer and more comfortable. At least, that’s the theory.
The carbon bill’s immediate impact (be it a cap-and-trade system, a straight up tax or some combination) is to produce a potentially large source of new federal revenue which can be turned right around and plowed into sustainable energy. That can then create untold economic benefits by making America energy independent and giving us something new to export. Along the way we pick up a healthier environment, climate stability and better lives for us all. That’s that theory, anyway.
Those are optimistic outcomes, but they are not unreasonable ones. The catastrophic problems with our medical and energy systems have been deliberately ignored for far longer than the last eight years; there’s no telling what advances serious federal attention may produce. There is even reason to think that the benefits may start accruing sooner than is generally assumed. From the time the federal government really focused on it, the atomic bomb was constructed in less than six years; men were put on the moon less than ten years after that goal became a federal priority. Both of those gargantuan projects were undertaken in an America that was economically puny and downright backwards compared to the one we have today. Years of festering neglect have bred an understandable sense of doom and gloom in the public and the media, but a sober eyed look at the precedents says there is real cause to be optimistic.
As for the future success of the Democratic Party, well the possibilities there are even more fantastic, but they also cannot be dismissed outright. The last time the Democrats, a party that is very likely a natural majority in the country at this time, had as much executive and legislative leverage as they do right now they gave old people and poor people health insurance as well as enfranchising and recognizing millions of Americans. Both of those accomplishments have proved enormously beneficial and have enjoyed lasting popularity.
The benefit at the ballot box that should’ve followed never got a chance on account of Vietnam. But if Eisenhower hadn’t sent in the advisors, or if Kennedy hadn’t kept them there, or if Johnson had gotten out before the Gulf of Tonkin, there was no end in sight to what was possible. Remember, in 1968 a candidate as lackluster as Hubert Humphrey came within 500,000 votes of political mastermind Richard Nixon, who was using every trick in the book and inventing some new ones along the way.
Does all this sound like pie in the sky? Well yeah, it does, and so maybe it is. But don’t forget that just a few months ago the words “generational election” were on the tips of everyone’s tongue. Well, this is what a “generational election” looks like in practice: a fundamental reordering of some of the basic ways this country does business. The Republican Party’s demographic position is shrinking by the day, their ideas and policies are widely unpopular, and their dream president turned into a nightmare. If you scripted a similar streak of disastrous decisions it would be derided as unrealistic that any party could run itself into the ground so quickly; but they did it.
What’s more, it’s happening still. The economic stimulus bill was passed over the vehement objections of almost every Republican in Washington and we can expect similar results for the next two big reforms. But they are standing in front of an almost invincible political force and they will probably fail on both counts. While doing so they are going to fight dirty and whine about it on a television set near you, but histrionics don’t equal votes.
There’s nothing wrong with some kicking and screaming because in time it will be recognized for what it is: a tantrum from an out of power party. They couldn’t stop Barack Obama’s first big project and there are two left on his domestic agenda; it seems silly to bet against him or act surprised when he succeeds.
