There have been many turning points and victory declarations when it comes to our sophomoric imperialism in Iraq, each as meaningless and forgettable as the last. All of them, purple fingers, transfers of sovereignty, new prime ministers and the rest, have had one unshakable tenet in common: the number of American troops in Iraq never decreased. No matter how many Iraqi troops were said to be trained, no matter how many barrels of oil were said to be moving, no matter how many insurgents were said to be killed, the number of Americans in Iraq, the number that matters most, never really came down.
Last week’s legal transition from American troops being in Iraq under a United Nations mandate to being in Iraq under a mutually negotiated Iraqi-American agreement could be different though. Not because it contains a deadline for American withdrawal, there have been more artificial deadlines set for this war than I care to remember. The real reason we’re getting ready to leave is the election of Barack Obama two months ago. Of course, there would’ve been a new status of forces agreement no matter who won our election. But prior to November 4th the biggest stumbling block to an agreement had been Iraqi insistence on a hard deadline for American withdrawal. The instant Obama was declared the winner that point of contention dissolved away, if McCain had won things would already be very different.
Taken in the larger context Obama’s election means that we no longer have any fundamental disagreements with Iraq, the first time that’s been true since 1990. First came the invasion of Kuwait, then it was Saddam Hussein’s plot against Bush the Elder, then it was about weapons inspections and human rights, then it was about no-fly zones and oil-for-food. Then we invaded, then the Hussein government crumbled, then we failed to set up a new one, then we tried to set ourselves up as permanent guests (though the Iraqis clearly do not want us), and so on and so forth. That’s an unending chain of serious disagreements that goes back almost twenty years.
Ever since those tanks rolled into Kuwait, almost two decades ago, the American military has been actively fighting or containing Iraqis. That long conflict, which has been nothing but trouble for both peoples, is finally coming to an end. But it’s not coming to an end because of battlefield success or economic exhaustion, on either side; it’s ending because of leadership change in both countries. Nobody won and nobody’s happy; it’s just over. The current leaders don’t care about the things that galled their predecessors into starting wars. Try to remember that if you hear someone doling our credit or blame for winning or losing in Iraq.
The true tale isn’t told by another transfer of sovereignty, it’s told by American troops getting in airplanes and coming home. It looks like we’re finally going to take that step, so maybe when 2009 goes out and turns into 2010, there will have been real progress in the one number that matters.
