Administrative Auguries

“Haruspicy: predicting the future through the study of animal entrails.” - Dr. Marvin Monroe’s Subliminal Vocabulary Builder

It’s now been a little over two weeks since we all woke up to the reality of President (elect) Barack Obama.  The time prior to the election was a cornucopia of news and candidate appearances, the time since has been a famine for a nation accustomed to gorging.  Obama simply isn’t as accessible to the public, in general or through the media, as he was during the campaign.  This should surprise no one; he is not campaigning for anything at the moment.  His public appearances have boiled down to a press conference, a couple of YouTube videos, and a 60 Minutes interview.  That’s all there’s really been.

In place of direct communication from the man himself speculation and haruspicy, ranging from the intelligent to the inane, are the order of the day.  He’s rumored to be picking this person for this cabinet post, quick - what does it mean?!  No wait, now it’s someone else!  Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State!  NoYesNo!  It’s goofy and pointless beyond written description (Talking Points Memo was kind enough to put together a short montage of uninformed punditry).  Just this morning the second lead story in The New York Times was about one Eric Holder who is believed to be under consideration for Attorney General, but it’s still so speculative that the phrase “no final decision has been made” was used in the opening paragraph.

Some of the names floating around the last couple of weeks will probably end up in the Obama Administration, others will not.  Trying to divine what it all means from the laughably incomplete and inaccurate information available is an exercise in futility.  Up at Salon the always thorough Glenn Greenwald highlights a lot of damning quotes from one John Brennan, Obama’s transition chief for intelligence policy.  (Always beware the blogger-lawyer with access to Lexis-Nexis.)  Is there cause for concern?  Maybe, but the election is over and Obama is now in charge.  There’s certainly nothing wrong with holding his feet to the fire, and people like Greenwald are exceedingly good at that sort of thing, but eight years of Bush the Younger have perhaps made everyone a little too skittish.

Take a look at this exchange from this Sunday’s 60 Minutes interview (starting at the 12:15 mark):

Kroft: There are a number of different things you could do early pertaining to executive orders.

Obama: Right.

Kroft: One of them is to shut down Guantanamo Bay.

Obama:  Mm-hmm

Kroft:  Another is to change interrogation methods that are used by US troops.  Are those things that you plan to take early action on?

Obama:  Yes.  I have said repeatedly that I intend to close Guantanamo and I will follow through on that.  I’ve said repeatedly that America doesn’t torture and I’m gonna make sure that we don’t torture.  Those are part and parcel of an effort to regain America’s moral stature in the world.

Kroft:  Can you give us some sense of when you might start redeployments out of Iraq?

Obama:  Well I’ve said during the campaign and I stick to this commitment, that as soon as I take office I will call in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, my national security apparatus, and we will start executing a plan that draws down our troops.  Particularly in light of the problems that we’re having in Afghanistan, which has continued to worsen.  We’ve got to shore up those efforts.

Does Obama say simply, “We’re leaving” Iraq?  No, but he’s speaking extemporaneously and hedging is a natural and proper position given the current situation.  Bush the Younger is still in charge and Obama has a lot to deal with after all; but the irrefutable facts are that the Iraqis very plainly want us to leave and Obama very plainly wants to leave.  The specifics are still unknown, but the smart money says we’re leaving.

The same is true when it comes to the issue of torture.  One could nitpick the way Kroft phrases his question, referring to “US Troops” when that horrifying Military Commissions Act put the torturing in the hands of the CIA, but Obama’s statement was simple and clear, “I’m gonna make sure that we don’t torture.”  The knee-jerk retort to that quote is to point out that Bush the Younger has also said that we don’t torture when we obviously and provably do torture.  But Obama is not Bush the Younger and for the time being he’s certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.  The same goes for Guantanamo, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Eight years of ever growing and multiplying disasters coming from the Executive Branch have left a lot of people numb to the idea that things might actually get better.  They might not get better immediately, or in a particular person’s preferred order, but things are likely on some kind of upswing.  Obama won; and while he isn’t going to be able to please everybody, he’s said most of the right things in the past and he’s still saying them now.  If he takes office and starts screwing things up left and right that’ll be different, but for now he’s qualified, popular, smart and accomplished; two weeks after his election and nine weeks until his inauguration, that’s enough.