Gun Jumping
Despite this week’s rejuvenation of Reverend Wright mania there really is very little left to be said about either the Democratic or Republican presidential nominating contests. On the Blue side Hillary Clinton continues to roll the dice on long odds but it almost certainly isn’t going to matter; the hole she dug for herself in February is just too deep. On the Red side John McCain has the whole world at his feet and owes Mike Huckabee a great big “Thank You” kiss just as soon as they get a private moment. With that in mind, let’s play “Jump the Gun” and ask some questions that aren’t on the minds of most folk yet, but soon could be.
The John Nance Garner Sweepstakes - Speculation has already begun as to who the undercards are going to be. McCain has a list already and despite the media’s fascination with an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket (which makes no sense for either of them) I’m sure each of them has one as well. The bottom half of the ticket will get more attention than usual this year because of McCain’s age as well and the fact that Dick Cheney has done remarkable things with his pitcher of warm piss. But in the end the Vice-Presidential nominees really only need to not do anything embarrassing or have any unknown embarrassments in their past.
The political press, bored out of their minds in June and July, will make a big fuss over both picks but the odds of either tilting the election one way or the other are really remote. While we’re on the topic, no John McCain is not going to select Condoleezza Rice. Not gonna happen. I could list a dozen reasons but two will be sufficient: 1) McCain is going to have a hard enough time distancing himself from the current Administration without selecting one of its most prominent members as his running mate, and 2) she’s black. There’s no sense in confusing the racist assholes whose votes McCain will need by putting melanin on both sides of the ballot.
Senior Moments - This one is a little speculative on my part, but I can’t resist. Everyone knows John McCain is old; half of the jokes at his expense make fun of him for it. But there are going to be moments in the campaign, on the stump, at a debate, basically any time McCain is live in front of a camera, where he’s going to forget something critical or misspeak badly. The trick isn’t to get people to understand that he’s old; it’s to show them that there may be real disadvantages to electing someone of that age. With any luck, McCain will do a lot of the work for them.
Racist Bullshit Ain’t Nothin’ New - The last couple of Republican conventions have been widely mocked for having a disproportionate number of black faces on the screen compared to the number of black keisters in the seats. This naked attempt at colorization reached its apotheosis at the 2004 convention when they had a gospel choir perform for a faithful but monochromatic audience.
This year, of course, we have the twist of the Democrats actually nominating a black guy. I, for one, am excited to see what effect (if any) this has on the presentation of the Republican national convention. Token symbolism from the right is one thing when the contest still boils down to White Guy #1 versus White Guy #2, it’s quite another when the other party is actually running a minority. Will they up the number of on-screen minorities? Increase the number of Latinos on the theory that they don’t like Obama? Or will they just abandon all pretense and have the lily-white convention they’ve always wanted?
Bring Out Your Dead - I’ll freely admit that I’m engaging in wishful thinking on this one, but I think there’s a real possibility that McCain is going to fall behind in the national polls over the summer and never recover. The thinking goes something like this, McCain and Obama are roughly on a par in most national polls at the moment - a moment when both McCain and Hillary Clinton are bad mouthing Obama and almost no one is bad mouthing McCain. In a year that looks to be have a pronounced Blue tint (Mississippi?!) it stands to reason that Obama should open up a lead on McCain within just a few weeks of Hillary’s removal from the scene. That may not happen, of course, but if it does, and if Obama’s lead holds up over time (and through the Republican convention), McCain and his surrogates are going to start getting questions about being behind and the whole stinkin’ election being a foregone conclusion. It will be high comedy.
Bush the Younger on the Trail - I am eagerly looking forward to this. Once the Democratic nomination finally ends, the biggest question in terms of campaign strategy is going to be the relationship between Bush and McCain. How will the McCain campaign deploy him? They literally can’t afford to just ignore him a la what Al Gore did to Bill Clinton in 2000; McCain is going to need the money that only Bush will be able to bring in from the crazies. With a disapproval rating above 70%, can McCain afford to be seen in public and on camera with Bush?
Then again, can he afford not to? That remaining thirty percent, many of whom have a longstanding dislike of the Senator, is absolutely necessary for a McCain victory. The convention ought to be entertaining. Will Bush give a speech on Day 1 and then vanish back to D.C., or will McCain need him there in the hall throughout? Keeping the Bush loyalists on board while still appealing to everyone else is the single toughest thing McCain is going to need to do. I am of the opinion that it is all but impossible, but watching them try ought to be one of the dominant themes of the campaign.
This list is by no means complete, and as always there are a lot of unknowns that no one is talking about at the moment. It’s just a few things to look for as we get into summer and the real and true silly season begins.
