“Ripoff!” – Abe Simpson
“We paid for blood!” – Hans Moleman
Democracy is a strange thing isn’t it? At its core it is utterly simple, every member of a group gets one vote and whichever position garners the most votes wins. The end. In practice, of course, it is a bit more complex. Last night was a perfect example. Popular votes, delegate counts, arcane rules, etcetera etcetera etcetera. Who won? Nobody knows! Even declaring a winner is a political act of spin.
The voting yesterday, the overloading of the first party sanctioned Tuesday, was a direct result of the last few nominating contests being, for the most part, over before they began. If you told political fans in December that neither contest would be settled on 5 February they wouldn’t have believed you. Now the campaigns of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee, John McCain and Mitt Romney will all likely continue through this weekend and beyond.
The big losers in all of this are the states that voted yesterday. Cramming themselves into a single day of voting was thought to increase the influence that they would have, even if it meant slicing the pie very thin. Instead, especially on the Democratic side, their brief, heavily shared moment in the sun will barely be remembered two weeks from now. The New York Times has a handy schedule of the primaries to come (Democratic, Republican) and there are a lot of states yet to go.
It will be interesting to watch what happens in four years when primary scheduling is again an issue. One party will likely have an incumbent running so it won’t much matter for them, but the other party is going to have to take a long, hard look at the overloading of primaries on a single day. Strictly from the perspective of state parties wanting attention from the candidates it sure looks like jamming everything in as early as possible was a mistake. Is an overreaction in the other direction possible? Sure it is. Knee jerk reactions never go out of style.
For now though, we get to settle in and watch the campaigns slug it out. A couple of weeks ago I was afraid that yesterday would settle things prematurely, just as the candidates and their surrogates were really beginning to lay into each other. Now that we’ve cleared that hurdle it looks like campaign season will continue at least through the month of February (where there are quite a few contests in both parties). This is exciting shit and it couldn’t be coming at a better time. Football season is over (what a finish!) and the nation is hard up for entertainment. The 4 March primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont seem like the next big stopping point. By then, we might be ready for it to be over.
Just how much does the Republican establishment hate John McCain? Is Mitt Romney willing to keep writing himself checks? Can Mike Huckabee become the anti-McCain candidate? Will Barack Obama’s stunning rise continue now that it is no longer a two person sprint, but a two person marathon? Can Hillary Clinton keep her coffers full?
Tune in next week for another exciting edition of Democracy Theater!
