“Aw Dad, it’s just a popularity contest.” – Bart Simpson
“Just a popularity contest! Excuse me, what’s more important than popularity?” – Homer Simpson
Tomorrow is the Iowa Caucuses, and we can finally drop the idiotic idea that the minor differences between health plans and immigration plans put forward by each candidate, most of which they have probably never personally read, mean something. This is not to say that there is no difference between the candidates, it just means that the information we have is laughably incomplete. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee would have vastly different presidencies, as would John Edwards and Barack Obama. But we’ve got to pick our nominees somehow and in the United States of America in 2008, this is how we start the process.
If you head over to www.pollster.com you can see how each candidate is doing in Iowa and New Hampshire in various polls. It’s the kind of information that you’re almost better off without because nobody actually knows what any of it means. But it’s the stage dressing for the all important expectations game, which in turn sets up the headlines, spin and other vapid analysis that will fill the echo chamber on Friday morning. What might some of that look like?
Republicans:
“Huckabee Wins Iowa” – Confirming his stunning rise in the polls over the last two months, Mike Huckabee has won the Republican Iowa Caucus. The victory has positioned him as the clear cut frontrunner for the Republican nomination going into next week’s New Hampshire primary.
“Romney Wins Iowa” – Turning back what many had considered a serious challenge from Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney has won the Republican Iowa Caucus. Once considered all but a shoe-in in Iowa, Romney has proved himself an able political fighter in turning away the challenge of the Baptist Minister.
“Anyone Else Wins Iowa” – In a stunning upset Rudy Giuliani/John McCain/Ron Paul/Fred Thompson has won the Republican Iowa Caucus. Iowa front runners Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have egg on their face this morning as last second campaigning and a shrewd ground operation by Rudy Giuliani/John McCain/Ron Paul/Fred Thompson has exposed their previous poll leads as media hyperbole.
Democrats:
“Hillary Clinton Wins Iowa” – In an historic first for a female presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton has won the Democratic Iowa Caucus, confirming her long running status as the odds on favorite to take the Democratic Nomination. If she can win in New Hampshire, where she has been running neck and neck with Barack Obama, the Democratic nomination may be hers before any other votes are cast.
“Edwards Wins Iowa” – John Edwards’ campaign for the Oval Office has always been based on winning in Iowa. Yesterday he did just that, and the question now becomes can he build on this victory in New Hampshire and beyond?
“Obama Wins Iowa” – In an historic first for a minority presidential candidate, Barack Obama has won the Democratic Iowa Caucus. The victory has dealt a potentially deadly blow to John Edwards’ campaign and put Mr. Obama in position to do the same to Hillary Clinton next week in New Hampshire.
“Anyone Else Wins Iowa” – In a stunning upset Joe Biden/Christopher Dodd/Bill Richardson has won the Democratic Iowa Caucus leaving the three biggest names in this campaign, Clinton, Edwards and Obama, scrambling to get their campaigns back on track before any further damage can be done in New Hampshire.
As puerile and stupid as most of the above is, it’s roughly what we’re going to be in store for come Friday. It might get a little muddy if the top spot is extremely close and two or more campaigns try to claim victory, but it would have to be really close for any candidate to risk looking like a sore loser.
There are certainly a lot of justifiable criticisms of the Iowa Caucuses (they’re basically a media invention, what makes Iowa so special anyway?, nothing is really at stake, the voting rules are arcane, etcetera), but what it comes down to is that this is the first chance ordinary citizens, not paid media people or on-line loudmouths, have to express support in a structured and reasonably fair system. We’ll see what happens tomorrow night.
