“Sorry, Bart. Your dad kinda blew the fantasy. I only like it when I’m pretend scared.” – Milhouse van Houten
To my way of thinking, the two worst signs for Republican chances next year are the large number of resignations of Congressional Republicans and the gap in fundraising between the parties. This week saw two more of the former, with a long expected resignation from Dennis Hastert and a whopper of a resignation from Trent Lott. Hastert’s resignation had all but been announced and was really only important for symbolic reasons, fallen Speakers don’t tend to stick around. But the Lott resignation got a lot of people talking, and rightly so. Lott was reelected last year; he didn’t have an election to face until 2012. The question on peoples’ lips is, “Why did he quit?”
The popular explanation is that he stayed on for a further year to provide extra Katrina relief and then got out because of new, more restrictive lobbying laws that would’ve prevented him from cashing in for two years instead of one. That sounds nice, and on some basic level it’s probably even true. After all, by the end of his current term Lott would be 71, while not geriatric by Senate standards he’s no spring chicken either. That extra year to earn lobbyist dollars, which I’d assume would probably be in the millions per year for a man like him, matters more when you’re that old.
There is a distinct whiff of defeat here though. I’ve never been a member of any legislative body but my sense of it is that it’s a lot more fun to be in the majority, winning votes and addressing problems that you feel are important, than it is to be in the minority, making indignant speeches while your enemies outvote you time and again. This is, to me at least, the real reason behind all of these Republican resignations. Being in the minority in either chamber of Congress probably sucks, but I bet it especially sucks if you’ve grown accustomed to being in the majority.
Of the seventeen (so far) House Republicans not running for re-election, only one of them was first elected prior to 1990; that would be Duncan Hunter who is busy running for President. Until this year they’d spent either most or all of their Congressional careers in the majority. Now, having had less than a year to taste life as the other half lives, they’re quitting. To be fair, some of those seventeen are either running for, or have already been elected to, another office, but the point remains valid. In fact, if just three more of them hang it up the Republican House contingent will have been literally decimated by resignations.
Back in the other chamber, we won’t have Trent Lott to kick around anymore. One of the points that has been made about his resignation is that after his Thurmond related loss of the leadership post five years ago, he had clawed his way back up the ladder. That he was once again in the leadership, within spitting distance of his old job as leader, was supposed to make his resignation that much more puzzling. The key difference is in that first word. Lott had mostly known life in the Senate leadership as a Majority job, when things were otherwise looking very positive for the Republicans. But why stick it out if the positions he really wanted back, the ones with “Majority” in the title, are probably out of reach?
Obviously only Lott knows for sure why he quit, neither I nor anyone else can know what’s in his head, and while some hilarious scandal breaking in the next year or two wouldn’t surprise me, my guess is that he doesn’t see much for him in the Senate. He won’t be able to command the same legislative power he once did, no matter what he does. All he’ll be able to do is try to stifle the Democrats for a few years, a task that any Republican from Mississippi could do just as well as him. Life in the minority is about patience, waiting and working so that someday you’ll be on the other side of things and be able to accomplish something other than obstruction. For a man in his late sixties with a lot of money on the table for the asking if he quits, patience isn’t an attractive option.
The pertinent question then becomes not, “Why did he quit?” but “Why would he stay?” There’s no good answer to that, and if he wants to get seriously paid (and this is a man who thought his book should command the same attention as those of presidents), then now’s the time.
