Tethered Swimming

“I don’t think they’re giving you enough information Dad.” - Lisa Simpson

“I’ll figure it out.  I’m gonna to use all the power of my brain.” - Homer Simpson

It was a great week if you’re prone to despair about the Iraq War.  Starting on Monday, during the lecture that General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker gave to the House, there was an avalanche of stories on-line and in print about how positive the spin was going to be and how hapless the Democratic attempts to knock down the success stories would be.  It didn’t let up on Tuesday, even as Messrs Petraeus and Crocker faced sharp questions from Republican and Democratic Senators the overall story arc was that the White House had pulled it off once more, Petraeus had done his public relations snow job brilliantly.  Thursday night was the capper as the President weighed in on primetime television to promise military homecomings and more success.  But in the end it was all just media masturbation; the fight is this week and it’s awfully premature to declare winner.

No one, not seasoned Congressional observers, journalistic titans or even the actual politicians know how the debate is going to play out.  There have been a lot of proposals floated and a lot of anonymous quotes but no definite plans of action have taken shape.  There are certainly hard blocs of pro and anti war sentiment in Congress, but there are a lot of question marks strewn across the middle.  We know there is Democratic unease with forcing a showdown just as we know there is Republican discontent with the White House.  What we don’t know are the specifics about what kind of proposals and compromises are going to emerge.  There is a lot of area for give and take on both sides and there is still plenty of opportunity for the White House or Congress to torpedo their own agenda through stupidity.  Nothing is set.

Consequently I find news analysis pieces, from professionals and amateurs alike, highly suspect.  Proclamations of doom or victory from either side have to be taken with a grain of salt.  These are politicians we’re talking about; they are puffing themselves up because they know that hard negotiations lie ahead.  Trying to discern any actual meaning from statements, television appearances, and press releases is a fool’s errand.  The compulsive nature of the twenty-four hour news cycle demands that it be done, but that doesn’t make it any less foolish.

So sit back, relax, and let’s watch the story unfold.  War opponents: don’t give up and start plotting electoral vengeance in aught eight just yet.  War supporters: don’t be too pleased with the media victories of last week, they might mean everything in the world or they might have been written on the wind.  Don’t crow and don’t despair.  Anyone who tells you that they know what’s really going on is probably selling something.

I don’t know what’s going to happen.  Neither does anyone else.  We’ll find out soon enough and while I am of the opinion that the war should be brought to as swift a conclusion as possible, others disagree.  None of us are likely to be super happy with whatever Congress barfs up at the end of the month, but if the war gets nudged a little more toward an ending, be it known as “success”, “withdrawal”, “victory”, “drawdown”, or any other word, that should be good enough for us all.