Tethered Swimming

“Oh no, an election? That’s one of those deals where they close the bars, isn’t it?” – Barney Gumble

Math class was never my favorite, but I did well enough to know that the odds of my vote deciding an election, any election, are damn near nil. On top of that, I find the culture of voting in this country (the smarmy civic pride exemplified by those “I Voted” stickers) to be embarrassingly silly. If you’re not inclined to actively support a cause or candidate (knocking on doors, making calls, giving out bumper stickers, etc), donating money is far more effective means of passive support. Even a token contribution, especially in smaller races, means a lot more to a campaign than your measly ballot. Nevertheless, I have this strange compulsion to vote in every election.

Perhaps I follow politics too closely not to vote. It would be disappointingly anti-climactic to ride the spin cycles and not chip in at the end. (Though there is a warped, contrarian appeal to that.) Practically speaking, I’ve got to do something on Election Day and there is no better place to get information than down at the polling station. TV doesn’t start making predictions until the polls close, and a lot of Kerry supporters got a very harsh lesson in the accuracy of internet exit polls in ’04.

Whether you hate the bastards in charge or fear anarchy and ruin if the challenger succeeds, there is no better sliver of information than first hand turnout observations. You know which way your community leans, and until you can get real results, nothing provides better speculation than that kind of statistically meaningless information.

Voting is also a fantastic way to learn about your community. People of all ages and from all walks of life vote; and this is your chance to see them in one, convenient place. Undoubtedly you’d consider many of these people to be hypocrites and assholes; you might not enjoy their company in the least and you probably disagree with them on any number of things – which is why we’re voting in the first place.

Going down to the polling station serves as a profound reminder that our country is inhabited by huge numbers of people that you otherwise never see. Public, communal places (supermarkets, parks, malls, airports, roads, etc) are narrow niches compared to polling stations. Voting is as universal as it gets. Even my beloved NFL, which attracts the attention of more people than almost anything else, can’t compete.

Finally, there is something reassuring about the act and process of casting a vote. I step into a flimsy booth, read and mark a little piece of paper, and that’s it. The fate of men and nations flows from that shoddy, mass produced piece of cardstock. Campaigning, especially for high office, has become a permanent part of the background noise of life. Politics and government can easily seem like just another entertainment option, merely another cluster of cable channels and websites. But they aren’t, they’re real. However meaningless my lone ballot may be, that visceral sense of reassurance alone is worth a trip out to vote.

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Brief Note: Yesterday was the 29th of May. It was also the 554th anniversary of the fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Sultan. The city was a shell of itself by 1453; large tracts of land within the walls had been abandoned or gone fallow for decades. The Byzantine Empire was already an Ottoman vassal state in function if not in name. But the fall of the city was lamented at the time as a cataclysmic undoing of Christianity. Those fears turned out to be just so much hyperventilating. When infantile pundits and academics who ought to know better speak of a cataclysmic clash of civilizations, I find it reassuring to think about that.

“He’ll slowly regain his confidence, as the months and years drift by, blissfully unaware that the Sword of Damocles is dangling just above his head. And then one day, when he least expects it…” - C.M. Burns

“Woo-hoo! I got my job back!” - Homer Simpson

There isn’t much point to anything that gets posted here, but even by that low standard it’s especially pointless to post something about the Iraq War. It is a subject that has been thoroughly talked out. The broad outlines of how the American involvement will end have been self evident since Bush the Younger won in ‘04. The war drags on despite official reforms and changes of policy; the public eventually tires of it; we decamp because of domestic political pressure; a small, stubborn group maintains that we were sold out and could’ve won; it remains a bone of contention for decades until everyone old enough to remember it first hand finally dies.[1] I’ve seen this movie before.

It is the particulars of how those things happen that are interesting, and as yet unknown. On Friday we got another fun piece of information to speculate with, namely the cynical passage of four months of new funding for the Iraq excursion. A raise in the minimum wage, snippy remarks about timetables and benchmarks, and all the rest of the headlines do not concern me. The two things that jump out at me most are the truly bizarre distribution of yeas and nays across the political spectrum and the measly four months of funding it provides.

This funding passed the House of Representatives with a “Nay” vote from the Speaker. That alone is noteworthy. Speakers don’t often lose votes unless they think they’re going to eventually look smart by doing so. The vote is, at it’s most basic, a wager by a bunch of people already worried about re-election.

All but the most lemming like Republicans are betting that we’re only a few months away from the moment when they can decisively break with the President without looking disloyal. If they go against him now, they can be accused of not giving the new plan and the new Secretary of Defense a chance. But if they wait until September, they can defend this vote as a reasonable last shot at material success.[2]

The more cautious of the Democrats are making a similar wager to a different audience. For them there is no charge of disloyalty, they just think that it would seem overeager to go for the kill right now. Four months from now, when they take their real stand, their base will forgive them for this vote.

Four months isn’t much for a war that’s already fifty months old. “More troops”[3] got its first serious public airing back in December when the Baker-Hamilton recommendations were politely ignored for daring to suggest negotiation. It became more or less official in January but it carried an important caveat. Due to logistical constraints, no real results would be available until summer.

“Summer” was usefully nebulous back in January. It’s one of only four seasons, and it’s a long season to boot, stretching three months and change from Memorial Day to Labor Day. After all, when does summer really end if the World Series goes almost to Halloween? Ah, but now Memorial Day[4] is upon us, public pools are open, the ins and outs of this year’s hem lines are being fought over, and advertisements implore you to think of grads and dads. Summer is here, and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be very long at all.

The Administration and it’s supporters, most of them growing more skittish by the day, have managed to push things back as far as possible. Beyond Labor Day! Beyond the start of the NFL season! Beyond even the equinox!! They pushed it all the way to the end of September (our most patriotic month). For this tremendous piece of chutzpah, they have been rewarded a reprieve good for 20% of the expected term.[5] That isn’t much of an accomplishment for a group of people that once believed they could alter reality itself by executive fiat.

Congress, and especially the Republicans in Congress, have staked out their point of no return. Those Democrats who are cautious now won’t be come September. That alone is more than a majority[6] in both the north and south houses.[7] There will doubtless be some Republican defections. The real question is, “How many?” It’s their last chance to turn on Bush the Younger before the silly season gets underway.

It’s just my opinion, but what they decide matters. If the end of American involvement isn’t in sight by late this year, the 2008 election is going to be so lopsided against the Republicans that it’ll be bad for all of us.

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[1] Presumably at that point those younger than us will have made plenty of their own mistakes and will be arguing over those instead. To give you an idea of where we are in that cycle right now, I’d say we’re still a few decades away from closing the book on Vietnam. It’s gonna be awhile.
[2] Nevermind that such chances ended in the summer of 2003, if they ever existed.

[3] more troops v. (mor∙trups) synonyms: surge, escalation, augmentation, reinforcement

[4] Which grows sadly more ironic every year.

[5] The fine print: Offer must be used immediately. Limit 1 per Administration. No doubling.

[6] Assuming Tim Johnson keeps breathing.

[7] I’ll bet there’s an interesting story behind why each chamber got put on the side it did.